In an interview with Caliber.Az, a Russian political analyst, and head of the analytical department of the International Eurasian Movement ponders why Armenia is not able to maintain its political course.
- Vladimir Konstantinovich, how do you assess Armenia's diplomatic defeat at the recent UN Security Council meeting, where the situation on Lachin road was discussed?
- The UN Security Council meeting on the Garabagh issue ended with an inconvenient decision for Armenia, as its participants took into account the humanitarian aspect of the problem, while the political aspect was ignored. In fact, the problem around the Lachin road was transferred to the status of an intra-Azerbaijani conflict. And here I would draw attention to the following nuance, which is fundamentally important for Azerbaijan. In general, and in particular, at the UN Security Council meeting, the status of Garabagh as an independent entity is no longer raised, which is an unambiguous victory for Azerbaijan and an unambiguous defeat for Armenian society.
I admit, however, that the decision of the UN Security Council, which so disappointed the Armenian society, suits the current leadership of Armenia, which is driven today by pragmatic interests and integration into Western structures. The fact that the Armenian authorities are seeking to break relations with Russia and the entire Eurasian space in general in order to turn towards the West and the United States is an obvious fact. However, just like the fact that for this integration the Garabagh problem is a kind of heavy weight that prevents them from completely breaking with Russia and starting relations with the West. Therefore, the fact that Azerbaijan has achieved its goal, that the international community no longer perceives the status of Garabagh as international, but accepts it as intra-Azerbaijani, can be said to suit the Armenian leadership.
- So, to put it bluntly, the Armenian leadership is not ready to fight for Garabagh now?
- Yes, because Garabagh brings neither money nor resources. It is by no means a prosperous region, and it prevents Armenia from integrating into Western structures.
- Armenia is disgruntled with the fact that Russia did not support it at that UN Security Council meeting. Why do you think Moscow unequivocally took Azerbaijan's side?
- Indeed, disappointment with Russia's position on this issue and its policy in the South Caucasus as a whole prevails in Armenian society. The Russian Federation supported Azerbaijan on the situation around the Lachin road because it believes that Yerevan is engaged in speculation and Baku is protecting its interests. And Moscow's own interest is that the conflict should stop. Russia needs peace on its southern borders, especially in the South Caucasus region. Firstly, in order to have a free hand in international politics, which requires that there be no additional tension in the form of another war, there be an opportunity to cooperate with regional countries in trade, to create transport corridors and industrial cooperation. Conflicts will inevitably exploit human, managerial, and monetary resources.
- Armenia continues to actively purchase weapons from India, France, and Iran. In your opinion, is this not done with a view to revenge?
- There are ultra-patriotic sentiments in a certain part of Armenian society, which are fuelled both from within and from Western intelligence services and political structures, which aim to create another zone of conflict and tension for Russia. It is clear that this trend mainly comes from the West, which fuels conflicts everywhere in order to maintain its dominant position in the region and the world. And as for Armenia, it does not really have the appropriate resources to unfold a new war. I believe Baku's position will continue to strengthen and Armenia's position will shrink, especially after it completely recognises the loss of Garabagh.
- And what will happen to the peace treaty?
- The issue of signing a peace treaty may not be resolved in the short term, but time is playing in Baku's favour, so the situation is likely to be resolved in Azerbaijan's favour.