What will happen to the labor market in Russia? What should a professional as well as a non-professional do? Where will the relocation path go, and what should those who remain do? – these questions I was ask on Monday by a familiar blogger.
Today I found a funny infographic from McKinsey. It is about how companies from the Forbes-500 list (broken down by industry, separately Western and non-Western) decide to leave, scale back its operations or stay in Russia. An interesting picture turns out.
First of all there is a big difference between those who declared and really leave - and those who simply declared.
Secondly, it depends on what they declared. No marketing in Russia (they just froze the budget item – which is very reasonable now), or no new contracts (which may be not so many anyhow), or new deliveries were postponed (which is nowadays very problematic due to logistics).
But in any case, clarity will come soon, and the wait-and-pay mode will end up. To my mind it will happen in the fourth quarter 2022, when will foreign companies prepare their budget for 2023. The majority will fix losses this year in order not to transfer losses to the next calendar period.
And finally, every crisis in the labor market is different. This one brings down big multinationals. Again – what does it mean to bring down. Changing shareholders for employees does not mean losing their jobs at all. Yes, trading companies may be closed (if there is nothing to trade), production companies are unlikely. And even some sales office in Russia (in the situation of no supplies from parent companies from Europe) are beginning to be allowed to sell the products of competitors from "friendly countries". Nonsense – but it's a fact.
At the same time, the average European family business is struggling to become invisible, to hide and stay. A generalized Mr. Müller from Bavaria, who invested his hard-earned (not from the stock exchange, but from his own pocket) a couple of million euros in a factory in Russia, will hold on his business until the last. He can't carry back the factory in his pocket. Many of these firms are hidden champions. And the fact that they are hidden helps them a lot.
What conclusions can be drawn from this?
1. There is a lot of foam in any storm. Companies are trying to get rid of the ballast. If in fat times it was possible to afford not too productive employees, now it's starting to strain a little.
2. However, there are no mass reductions (and they are unlikely to be).
3. Yes, hiring is limited now, although large Russian companies will soon grow. Foreigners don’t open new positions and do not always make replacements either.
4. The best employees are valued and kept. The best employees are very careful – especially in the crisis.
5. Mobility helps. For IT specialists – internationally (especially "to friendly countries"), for the rest – domestic.
6. A good professional will always find himself.
7. Yes, and a bad one too – perhaps for a little less money. Which is - bearing in mind a high inflation – a bad but not fatal combination.