The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pronounced Canal Istanbul as the largest project in the Turkish Republic’s history. According to Erdogan, the project could be a turning point for the country, possibly improving the development of Turkey to a much further point than any Turkish citizen can imagine.
“The project is appropriate both legally and scientifically,” said the President. “Kanal Istanbul is maybe one of the most environment-friendly projects in the world.”
Despite such declarations, there is no technical report assessing the feasibility of carrying out this project. Moreover, there is also no report measuring the potential environmental, economic, social, and financial gains and losses. As a result, financing the massive project will be highly difficult.
With so much uncertainty, it is not possible to create an accurate risk management setting. The project has both positive and negative claims. The negative points appear to be more well-founded, whereas the positive points are based on many ambiguous assumptions. To begin, the Turkish government claims that over 65,000 ships will pass through the canal in 2039 and pay a bill to Turkey. The existing Bosphorus, however, provides a free route between the Marmara and the Black Sea. The Bosphorus sees an average of 50,000 ships per year, and having a larger annual number than Bosphorus will likely not be feasible.
Another controversial aspect of the project is finance, with the president declaring that Turkey could build the project entirely from governmental funds, with no additional funding from outside sources. On the other hand, the Erdogan administration prefers to fund the project through a public-private partnership.
Aside from the expected negative financial and economic consequences, creating an unnatural channel and connecting the Black and Marmara seas may have numerous negative environmental consequences. Furthermore, increasing Istanbul's population with the two new cities as part of the Canal Istanbul project may result in a slew of other political, social, and environmental disasters.
“Through this new canal, the Black Sea and the Marmara waters will get mixed. This will have ecological consequences and imperil an already tenuous water supply and marine life,” stated Pinar Giritlioglu, vice president of the Chamber of Urban Planners.
Lastly, the number of landowners in this area has skyrocketed, and the average price of one acre in this area has reached high values when compared to prices ten years ago. Many Qataris have purchased land in this region, while people in Turkey are watching advertisements about buying land with a high expected value in the near future. In addition, Turkey is even granting citizenship to foreigners who purchase real estate or a house for more than $250,000.
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