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Андрей Бойцов

Angry Thoughts

Words like "it's just a flu" (in all shapes and forms) annoy me a lot.

Most people don't feel the difference between mortality of 1% and mortality of 1-2 per 10 000. "I'll be fine" in both cases. Especially when you are relatively young and healthy, and those probabilities are 10 times smaller for you [1]. But how do they accumulate? It feels like many people don't grasp the full picture, can't "see the forest behind the trees". They don't see how this 50-100 times difference plays out at the end.

For example, how many people need ICU care? I guess, mortality rate can be a lower estimate of ICU admission rate [8]. So, let it be 1% vs 1-2 per 10 000. Wiki says that in Russia we had 8 ICU beds per 100 000 people (before COVID) [2].

If 1% of people are infected [7], what does an ordinary person see? Smth like "One of my friends is ill, but he is doing OK. What epidemics? I don't see it. But lockdowns do affect me quite a lot."

But what does an ICU doctor see? 1% is infected, out of which 1% need ICU care. That's 10 people per 100 000, but there are only 8 per 100K beds. "Overload! For COVID patients alone we need 25% more beds than our total". And, I guess, COVID patient cannot take just any ICU bed.

And what if it was the flu? Same 1% is infected, out of which 0.02% need ICU care. That's additional +0.2 per 100 000 people. If there are 2.5% (0.2/8) of free beds, we are still managing. Now THAT'S where this 50-100 difference came into play. And for an ordinary person everything looks the same - "One of my friends is ill, but he is doing OK"

See the difference?

And the same goes for hospitals, ambulances, doctors, nurses, etc. And that's where it starts. People see the interviews and say "What do you mean medics are overloaded? Must be lying, I don't know anyone who is sick". See the numbers and go like "How many died? That can't be, I have very few friends who got infected, and they managed just fine." Or "Numbers must be exaggerated, they are writing everyone as COVID victim" (well, you have to explain the numbers to yourself if noone got sick around you). "Flu also kills, we just started noticing it because of the media." And so on and so forth.

And that's how it goes. Everyone is doing OK, everyone is just living their life. But medics see the other side of the coin. People who need help also see that other side of the coin. They call an ambulance and hear "Sorry, but we can't send anyone." Not to my sister (34yo) with suspected and later confirmed stroke (she is relatively OK now [6]). Not to my classmate (35yo) who felt extremely bad due to COVID complications (he also managed).

Another annoying phrase: "died not FROM COVID, but WITH COVID". It goes like "this one does not count, she had asthma, this one also does not count, he had diabetes" etc. But that's not the same as "they wouldn't have survived flu either". If you apply the same standards to flu, then flu mortality will be around zero.

Many people say "That's not plague. That's not Spanish flu. Just yet another respiratory virus". Well, that's not Spanish flu, I'd give them that. But do you remember the second and third worst respiratory pandemics in 20th century? Hong-Kong flu of 68-69 [3] and Asian flu pandemic of 57-58 [4]. Each killed 1-4 millions. And each had mortality of "mere" 0.2%. Compare to current 1% (different estimates, some a bit less, most quite a bit more). Even now, with all measures, the number of casualties is getting close to 2 millions [5]. If we did nothing, we would have surpassed those 4 millions easily.

But the most annoying is accusation of panic. The only time when this word was applicable (and even then with a HUGE stretch) was in March, when people were buying a lot of flour, toilet paper, etc. What I see is a non-standard situation, which is sometimes annoying. For medics things are outright complicated. But I don't see any panic at all. Some people are bothered more, some less.

As a result, everyone personally is doing OK, but the full picture is pretty bleak.

I have a lot more thoughts to speak out, but that's enough for now.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-by-age For my age group - literally 10 times smaller for COVID

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957%E2%80%931958_influenza_pandemic

[5] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 1,922,502 as I'm writing it

[6] https://zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5e422e4fcc7ba30841c6d6af/o-nenulevoi-veroiatnosti-redkih-sobytii-5fed9ff2bb14d54ffbf0c50f for those who can read Russian

[7] This number is just for example. You can see the actual number here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[8] Most people who die, they die at ICU. And quite many survive the ICU. Definitely saw the numbers, but can't find them at once.