And, candidly, a better shot against Diageo.” Such a deal would reinforce the dominance of these large global players and intensify

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competition with rivals. If Beam Suntory’s union was about expansion, a Brown‐Forman‐Pernod Ricard tie‐up could have become a marriage of power. “We all know the headlines by now,” writes Iconic Spirits founder Jonny Gray in his Between the Boardroom and the Bar Substack. “Consumption is down; the post‐Covid premiumisation wave has slowed; China is still underperforming; Gen Z is drinking less – or not at all. And all big brands are responding to this,” he says, citing Campari Group’s restructure, sales pressures felt by Rémy Cointreau, and Diageo’s revolving door of leadership changes. All of this, he says, “represents the first real contraction the spirits industry has seen in 30 years, so it stands to reason that consolidation is coming. But this deal is different; it’s the first one that actually feels strategic, not just necessary.” Gray, who previously worked as a senior brand ambassador at Pernod Ricard, says he lived through a couple of versions of the firm’s ‘Project Tomorrow’

And, candidly, a better shot against Diageo.” Such a deal would reinforce the dominance of these large global players and intensify competition with rivals. If Beam Suntory’s union was about expansion, a Brown‐Forman‐Pernod Ricard tie‐up could have become a marriage of power.

“We all know the headlines by now,” writes Iconic Spirits founder Jonny Gray in his Between the Boardroom and the Bar Substack. “Consumption is down; the post‐Covid premiumisation wave has slowed; China is still underperforming; Gen Z is drinking less – or not at all. And all big brands are responding to this,” he says, citing Campari Group’s restructure, sales pressures felt by Rémy Cointreau, and Diageo’s revolving door of leadership changes. All of this, he says, “represents the first real contraction the spirits industry has seen in 30 years, so it stands to reason that consolidation is coming. But this deal is different; it’s the first one that actually feels strategic, not just necessary.”

Gray, who previously worked as a senior brand ambassador at Pernod Ricard, says he lived through a couple of versions of the firm’s ‘Project Tomorrow’, “which felt like reactionary, austerity‐driven restructuring dressed up in corporate positive language at the time”. This feels different, he says. “The scale of this deal and the complexity involved feels like the complete opposite of that ‘cut costs to protect margins’ exercise. If these companies were taking a more conservative outlook, they’d be doubling down on their core markets to protect what they’ve already got, but this does the opposite. It’s a bet on globalisation, with Pernod Ricard strengthening further in the US, and Brown‐Forman gaining better access to emerging markets. It all implies something really important: that these big companies still believe there is long‐term growth in this industry, and they want to own more of it.”

In the first half of April, The Wall Street Journal reported that fellow Kentucky‐based Sazerac had begun circling Brown‐Forman in search of a liaison of its own – a move that threatened to extinguish any relationship with Pernod before it had the chance to evolve from ‘it’s complicated’ to ‘official’.

While it’s not known whether this deal is still on the table, with Sazerac yet to comment publicly about its interest in the Herradura owner, Tannenbaum notes that between the two, Pernod was “probably the better partner” for Brown‐Forman because the “strategic logic actually holds”. He explains: “Pernod brings something Brown‐Forman has structurally lacked: international distribution at scale. Jack Daniel’s is already global, but the rest of the Brown‐Forman portfolio hasn’t got there. Plugging Woodford Reserve into Pernod’s network is a real, executable synergy.”

He also recognises that, unlike with Pernod, this would not be a merger. “Sazerac’s track record is acquisitions. Southern Comfort, BuzzBallz, Dirty Shirley – they buy things,” he clarifies, estimating that Sazerac’s revenue is somewhere in the region of US$3bn‐US$5bn, putting it in the same neighbourhood as Brown‐Forman on top line. “But revenue comparability doesn’t make a ‘merger of equals’,” he says, noting Sazerac would be financing a transaction at a premium over Brown‐Forman’s US$12bn‐plus market cap, all of which points towards what would be an acquisition structure.