Rossiyaning Ukrainadagi yo'qotishlari har qachongidan tezroq oshmoqda, AQSh tinchlik kelishuvini ilgari surmoqda
So'nggi 10 oy ichida Rossiyaning Ukraina bilan urushdagi yo'qotishlari 2022 yildagi to'liq bosqin boshlanganidan beri hech qachon bo'lmagan tezlikda o'smoqda, deb ko'rsatmoqda BBC tahlili.
2025-yilda AQSh prezidenti Donald Tramp ma'muriyati bosimi ostida tinchlik harakatlari kuchaygan sari, Rossiya manbalarida askarlarning nekrologlari o'tgan yilga nisbatan 40% ko'proq e'lon qilindi.
Umuman olganda, BBC Ukrainada Rossiya tomonida jangda halok bo'lgan deyarli 160,000 kishining ismlarini tasdiqladi.
BBC News Russian 2022 yil fevraldan beri mustaqil Mediazona nashri va ko'ngillilar guruhi bilan birga Rossiya urush yo'qotishlarini hisoblab kelmoqda. Biz rasmiy hisobotlar, gazetalar, ijtimoiy tarmoqlar va yangi yodgorliklar hamda qabrlar orqali o'limini tasdiqlay olgan nomlari keltirilgan shaxslar ro'yxatini yuritamiz.
Asl o'limlar soni ancha yuqori deb hisoblanadi va biz so'rayotgan harbiy mutaxassislar qabristonlar, urush yodgorliklari va nekrologlar tahlilimiz jami 45-65% ni tashkil qilishi mumkinligini hisoblaydi.
Bu rus o'limlari sonini 243,000 dan 352,000 gacha tenglashtiradi.
Har bir davr uchun nekrologlar soni tasdiqlangan yo'qotishlarning dastlabki bahosi bo'lib, ba'zilari qo'shimcha tekshiruvga muhtoj va oxir-oqibat rad etiladi. Lekin bu jang intensivligi vaqt o'tishi bilan qanday o'zgarayotganini ko'rsatishi mumkin.
2025 starts with a relatively low number of published obituaries in January, compared with the previous months. Then the number rises in February, when Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked directly for the first time about ending the war in Ukraine.
The next peak in August coincides with the two presidents meeting each other in Alaska, a diplomatic coup for Putin that was widely seen as an end to his international isolation.
In October, when a planned second Russia-US summit was eventually shelved, and then in November, when the US presented a 28-point peace proposal, an average of 322 obituaries were published per day - twice the average in 2024.
It is difficult to put increased Russian losses down to any one factor, but the Kremlin sees territorial gains as a way of influencing negotiations with the US in its favour: Putin aide Yuri Ushakov stressed recently that "recent successes" had had a positive impact.
Murat Mukashev was among those who gambled on a quick peace deal, and it cost him his life.
Mukashev was an activist who had never supported Putin's policies.
Over the years, he had taken part in demonstrations against police violence and torture, and joined rallies for LGBT rights and the release of Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin's main opponent who died in prison in 2024.
He had repeatedly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine on social media from 2022. Then, in early 2024, Mukashev was detained near his home in Moscow and charged with large-scale drug dealing.
While his case was being tried he was offered a contract with the defence ministry, according to his friends and family.
They saw the heavy charges levelled against him as a typical ploy to get people to sign up. A 2024 law allows the accused a way out of a criminal conviction if they join up - an attractive option in a country with an acquittal rate of less than 1%.
Mukashev refused the offer, and the court sentenced him to 10 years in a high-security penal colony.
2024-yil noyabrda qamoqda u fikrini o'zgartirdi. Do'stlari Trumpning urushni tezda tugatish haqidagi va'dalaridan ruhlanganini va tinchlik kelishuviga erishishdan oldin ozod qilinishini ta'minlash uchun imkon qadar tezroq rozi bo'lishi kerakligini aytishdi.
"U buni 10 yil qat'iy rejimda qamoqda o'tirib, ozod bo'lish imkoniyati deb ko'rdi," deb yozadi uning qo'llab-quvvatlash guruhi bayonotida.
U urushda ishtirok etishni o'ldirishga istaksizligi bilan qanday qilib yarashtirgani haqida hech qanday izoh yo'q edi.
2025-yil 11-iyunda Mukashev shimoliy-sharqiy Ukrainadagi Xarkov viloyatida hujum guruhi tarkibida jang qilayotganda halok bo'ldi.
BBC ma'lumotlariga ko'ra, 2025-yilda frontda halok bo'lgan ruslarning aksariyati to'liq urush boshida harbiylar bilan bog'liq emas edi.
Ammo 2023-yil oktyabr oyida Avdiivka shahri uchun bo'lib o'tgan qonli jangdan so'ng, bosqin boshlanganidan beri ixtiyoriy ravishda shartnoma imzolagan "ko'ngillilar" — deb ataladigan odamlar orasida qurbonlar soni barqaror oshib bormoqda.
Hozirda ular Rossiyaning yangi chaqiruvchilarining ko'pchiligini tashkil etmoqda, bosqindan oldin armiyaga qo'shilgan yoki keyinchalik harbiy xizmatga chaqirilgan professional askarlardan farqli o'laroq.
Bir yil oldin Rossiya harbiy qurbonlarining 15 foizi ko'ngillilar bo'lgan, 2025 yilda esa bu ko'rsatkich uchdan bir marta edi.
Mahalliy hukumatlar doimiy yangi xodimlar oqimini ta'minlash, katta to'lovlar e'lon qilish, katta qarzdor odamlar bilan uchrashish va universitet hamda kollejlarda kampaniya olib borish bosimi ostida.
Bu shuni anglatadiki, Kreml frontdagi katta yo'qotishlarni qoplashga muvaffaq bo'ldi va siyosiy jihatdan xavfli bo'lgan keng ko'lamli majburiy safarbarlikdan qochdi.
Oktyabr oyiga kelib, bu yil 336,000 kishi harbiy xizmatga yozilgan, Milliy Xavfsizlik Kengashi o'rinbosari Dmitriy Medvedevga ko'ra, oyiga 30,000 dan oshgan.
NATO Bosh kotibi Mark Rutte har oy 25 000 rus askari o'ldirilayotganini aytdi. Agar ikkalasi ham to'g'ri bo'lsa, Rossiya hali ham yo'qotganidan ko'proq askar yollamoqda.
Nekrologlar va qarindoshlarning so'zlariga ko'ra, jangga rozi bo'lganlarning aksariyati buni ixtiyoriy ravishda amalga oshirgan; ammo bosim va majburlash haqida xabarlar bor, ayniqsa oddiy chaqiruvchilar va jinoyat jinoyatlarida ayblanganlarga qarshi.
Ba'zi yollanmaganlar bir yilga ro'yxatdan o'tgach, cho'ntaklarida pul bilan eski hayotlariga qaytish mumkin deb noto'g'ri o'ylashadi.
Yangi yollanma bir yilda 10 million rubl (£95,000; $128,000) gacha daromad topishi mumkin. Aslida, 2022-yil sentabrdan boshlab mudofaa vazirligi bilan imzolangan barcha shartnomalar urush tugaguncha avtomatik ravishda yangilanadi