THE NUMBER OF anonymously owned, elderly tankers from the dark fleet loading oil from Russia has surpassed Greece-linked vessels for a second consecutive month, as higher oil prices continue to recalibrate market responses to Western sanctions.
Those tankers defined as being part of the dark fleet * comprised 39% of vessels that called at five key Russian Baltic and Black Sea ports during October, when measured by deadweight, Lloyd’s List analysis shows.
Of those ships not classed as dark fleet, 37% were Greece-owned tankers, 10% were Russian, while tankers owned by Türkiye or other countries comprised 14%, according to data compiled from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Lloyd’s List analysed 293 ships that called at the five export ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg, Novorossiysk and Tuapse over October.
Sovcomflot-owned tankers that loaded cargoes from Black Sea ports were not counted as the tankers have begun switching off their vesseltracking in the region, for safety and security reasons.
Greece-owned tankers previously dominated in Russia after other Western shipowners exited over the past 18 months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, maintaining 50% market share before sanctions began 11 months ago. That was up from pre-invasion levels of some 30%.
There is no suggestion that Greek-owned tankers are breaching sanctions with all insured with clubs that are members of the International Group, a proxy for compliance.
Data shows the dark fleet is now playing a larger role than ever in the shipment of Russian oil over the past 13 months, especially after a price cap was imposed on crude shipments in December, and refined product shipments in February.
Under the G7 cap, Western marine service providers including shipowners, charterers, traders and insurers cannot ship any oil from Russia to third countries unless they have evidence the cargo was priced below $60 per barrel for crude, $100 per barrel for refined products and $45 per barrel for fuel oil.
Since August, prices for all Russian crude grades and refined products (except for gasoline and naphtha) have surpassed price caps imposed by the Group of Seven industrialised nations and Australia, according to price reporting agencies.
Despite this, 48% of all tankers, or 149 of the 293 ships that called at these ports over October, had insurance with International Group club members, a proxy for compliance.
Although global price reporting agencies assess cargoes as trading above the cap on paper, some market participants attribute longer-term, lowerprice deals, as well as inflated freight rates for the high number of shipments complying with the cap.
Even so, the number of tankers for which the provider of P&I insurance is unknown is also rising,
a proxy for non-compliance with the cap.
Since Urals crude surpassed the cap value in July, tankers without coverage from the 12 clubs that
from the International Group averaged 50%, measured by deadweight.
A year ago, only 22% of tankers weren’t covered by International Group clubs, rising to just over a third post sanctions and peaking at 53% in September. For the first seven months the oil price of most Russian crude grades and refined products traded below the cap, effectively making every shipment compliant.
But since global oil rose in July alongside voluntary Saudi Arabia production cuts the dark fleet’s role in shipping Russian oil has increased, alongside deceptive or evasive shipping practices as highlighted by the US government in its May 2020 guidance.
This includes flag-hopping, overly complicated corporate structures to avoid beneficial ownership discovery and ship-to-ship transfers in international waters to avoid port state control scrutiny.
Some 104 dark fleet vessels tracked calling at the Russia ports in October, with 30 having insurance with International Group clubs. This suggests that 74 of those dark fleet tankers were not complying with the cap.
Figures show Greece shipowners market share has stabilised about 36% to 38% in the past three months. It had dipped to as low as 31% in February immediately after sanctions were introduced, in December and February.
Greece’s share in Russian Baltic and Black Sea trades averaged 44% in the second quarter, and 36% in the third quarter.
*Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as part of the dark fleet if it is aged 15 years or over, anonymously owned and/or has a corporate structure designed to obfuscate beneficial ownership discovery, solely deployed in sanctioned oil trades, and engaged in one or more of the deceptive shipping practices outlined by US State Department guidance issued in May 2020. The figures exclude tankers tracked to government-controlled shipping entities such as Russia’s Sovcomflot, or Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co, and those already sanctioned. Download our explainer on the different risk profiles of the dark fleet here
Lloyd's List Daily Briefing 02 November 2023