GRAINS-Wheat gains as explosives raise uncertainty about Black Sea supply

GRAINS-Wheat gains as explosives raise uncertainty about Black Sea supply

CANBERRA, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures rose on Thursday, after Russia allegedly dropped explosives in a Black Sea grain shipping route and traders looked ahead to harvests hit by dry weather in Argentina and Australia that are likely to tighten supply.

Corn and soybean prices also rose.

FUNDAMENTALS

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was up 0.4% at $5.64 a bushel by 0058 GMT. CBOT soybeans Sv1 rose 0.2% to $13.17-1/2 a bushel and corn Cv1 gained 0.1% to $4.75-1/2 a bushel.

Ukraine said Russian warplanes dropped "explosive objects" into the likely paths of civilian vessels in the Black Sea three times in the last 24 hours, but that its fledgling shipping corridor was still operating.

Ukraine has struggled to maintain its grain exports in recent weeks amid Russian attacks and blockades.

However, wheat prices remain near September's three-year low of $5.40 a bushel due to an abundance of cheap wheat flowing from the Black Sea, mostly from Russian ports.

Russia should harvest 140 million metric tons of grain this year, its agriculture minister said last month, including 93 million tons of wheat. It is Russia's second biggest harvest after last year's record crop.

After months of huge shipments, Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon on Wednesday lowered its forecast for Russia's 2023/24 wheat exports to 48.8 million metric tons from 49.2 million tons.

Concerns of dry weather reducing yields in late-harvesting exporters Argentina and Australia have helped put a floor under prices. Rain in both countries has stabilised crops but damage has already occurred.

Argentine farm exports brought in $743.5 million in October, down 25% from October 2022, an industry group said, confirming the impact of drought.

Russia's agriculture ministry proposed a six-month ban on durum wheat exports, the Interfax news agency reported, but Russia produces little durum.

Turning to corn, commodity brokerage StoneX raised its U.S. 2023 crop estimate to 15.302 billion bushels from 15.282 billion bushels but reduced its projection for Brazil's 2023/2024 crop to 128 million metric tons from 138.11 million.

CBOT corn fell to its lowest in seven weeks on Wednesday -- and was close to September's 33-month low of $4.68 -- as the ongoing U.S. harvest added to supply and weather forecasts improved in cropping areas in South America.

For soybeans, StoneX lowered its forecast for U.S. production to 4.162 billion bushels from 4.175 billion but raised its outlook for Brazil's 2023/24 crop to 165 million metric tons from 164.1 million, saying some farmers there were switching to summer soybeans from corn.

Chicago prices are all under pressure from a strong U.S. dollar, which has moved back towards October's 11-month high, making U.S. crops less competitive globally.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat and soyoil futures on Wednesday but were even in soybeans and soymeal, traders said.

MARKETS NEWS

Global stock indexes rose sharply while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to two-week lows on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates steady.