Article overview: https://russtrat.ru/analytics/21-marta-2022-0010-9479
Since February 24, 2022, the essence of the international situation is that no agreements with the West, either oral or written, work - only a pressure factor.In his interview with RBC on March 16, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov answered the question of whether the situation with Ukraine could not be resolved by the world, why it didn’t work out, why a special military operation was needed. I will quote part of the statement of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry:
“Because the West did not want to solve this situation with the world. This is not about Ukraine at all. Or rather, not so much about Ukraine as about the global legal order. The United States took over the whole of Europe. The United States under Biden set itself the task of subjugating Europe and achieved its unquestioning adherence to the American course. I think that the current crisis is a fateful moment. This is an epochal moment in modern history. It reflects the battle for what the world order will look like.”
Thus, Sergey Lavrov says that the situation in Ukraine is just one of the episodes, albeit a very important one, of the global process of changing the world order. Let's try to imagine what other tasks Russia will have to solve in the next 3-5 years in order to neutralize the most serious challenge to national security in connection with the approach of the US and NATO military infrastructure to Russian borders.
At the moment, the West is forming another crisis point. We are talking about Moldova and Transnistria. On March 3, 2022, the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, announced the application for EU membership: “We need to act urgently when circumstances require it. Our decision to apply does not mean automatic joining. Much more work needs to be done by the state and the private sector to get closer to EU standards in order for our application to be approved.”
According to the constitution, Moldova is a neutral country, and the EU does not call itself a military-political bloc. However, he is, in essence. For example, the European Union's military command and control bodies almost repeat the structure of NATO's military command bodies. In fact, Moldova's accession to the EU will also mean an informal membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. The country will be firmly fixed in the zone of influence of the West, and eventually become a formal member of NATO.
Against this background, the concerns of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic are understandable. On March 4, 2022, the PMR Foreign Ministry issued a special statement that the decision of the Moldovan authorities means readiness to transfer the sovereignty of Moldova to supranational bodies in the European Union and the transition to the final military-political and economic development of the territory of the Republic of Moldova by the West.
Pridnestrovie called on Moldova to dialogue in order to finally settle relations on the basis of the signing of an interstate agreement on the peaceful, good-neighbourly existence of two independent states.
The statement of the PMR Foreign Ministry also says: “We consider it necessary to emphasize that the Pridnestrovian people determined their fate in a civilized and democratic way on September 2, 1990, stopped the military aggression of Moldova in 1991-1992, defended their freedom and independence, confirmed the inviolability of the course towards international recognition of sovereignty and independence of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) at the national referendum on September 17, 2006”.
In addition, the MFA of the PMR sent relevant appeals to the UN, the OSCE and other addressees with a request to recognize the reality that has existed for more than thirty years in the form of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, to ensure the observance of the right of the Pridnestrovian people to self-determination and to establish diplomatic relations with Pridnestrovie.
How to resolve this situation in the simplest and diplomatic way? The Republic of Moldova and the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic conclude an appropriate agreement, as indicated above in the text. Further, the Russian Federation will be the first to recognize the independence of the PMR and establish diplomatic relations with it.
But no, the West decided to play escalation in this situation as well. On March 15, 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on the exclusion of Russia from the Council of Europe, which also recognized "an act of armed aggression [of Russia] against the Republic of Moldova and, accordingly, the occupation of the Transnistrian region." By the way, Moldova was not a co-author of the amendment to this resolution, but no objections were raised from Chisinau. Silence in this case is regarded as support for this approach.
It should be noted that there are three official languages in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic: Russian, Moldavian and Ukrainian. The Russian flag has been used as the second state flag since 2017. More than two hundred thousand citizens of Russia live on the territory of the PMR. Since 1992, the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation, formed from the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria, has been deployed on the territory of the republic.
Obviously, as the Russian special operation in Ukraine advances, the RF Armed Forces will reach the borders of Transnistria through the Odessa region, which will protect the so far unrecognized republic from possible armed aggression from Chisinau and make its transport and economic blockade impossible.
In addition, it will dramatically increase the contractual capacity of the Republic of Moldova. Further actions will largely depend on the plans of the military-political leadership of Russia to regain control over the former territory of the USSR, namely, whether Moldova's accession to the European Union corresponds to these plans.
The next point of tension for Russia, the United States and its NATO allies have formed in Finland, which is actively being pulled into the North Atlantic Alliance. In this country, the number of polls has recently increased dramatically, according to which the majority of respondents allegedly favor Finland's accession to NATO.
In this case, the military infrastructure of the bloc will come close to the borders of Russia in the northwest. St. Petersburg will be under threat. The distance in a straight line from the northern capital of Russia to Helsinki is 297 kilometers.
Such a step by Finland would be unacceptable for Russia: after all, it was part of the Russian Empire. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated: "We will never agree with only one thing: that someone would allow himself to use Russia's generous gifts to harm the Russian Federation itself."
Another point of tension for Russia is the Baltics. The deployment in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of NATO military contingents, strike missile systems, including nuclear ones, will create a high level of threat to our country.
In addition, there is the problem of the Kaliningrad region. This region is cut off from Russia and sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. The first step towards the isolation of Kaliningrad has already been taken: the EU countries have closed the skies for Russian civil aviation. But our planes fly around the Baltic Sea.
Land transit to Kaliningrad goes through the territory of Lithuania. It is not regulated by Lithuania, but by a separate agreement between Russia and the European Union. Therefore, Lithuania alone cannot stop him. Recently, however, the European Union has adopted a large number of tough sanctions against Russia, including freezing its gold and foreign exchange reserves. There are no guarantees that the EU, under US pressure, will not stop land transit to Kaliningrad.
It must be understood that since February 24, 2022, the essence of the international situation is that no agreements with the West, either oral or written, work. Only the physical control of the territory and transit routes with the help of military force works. Therefore, initially it becomes meaningless to negotiate. Only by military means. And negotiations (diplomacy) after the establishment of physical control.
If the EU and NATO seriously escalate the situation with the Baltics, then Russia's special operation in this region will be another necessary measure. However, it will be possible only if Russia blocks US actions, for example, by bringing Poseidon nuclear submarine drones with megaton thermonuclear warheads and surface ships equipped with Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles to the continental United States for direct targeting.
The Ukrainian situation has given Moscow a huge amount of material on the issue of the conduct of biological warfare by the United States and its NATO allies against Russia. In the coming years, Moscow will "knock out" the military biological laboratories of the United States and its allies from the territories of the countries of the former USSR. Comprehensive support on this issue will be provided by China.
The degree of a country's friendliness to Russia will be determined by the voluntary closure of such laboratories on its territory. In case of refusal, strikes with high-precision weapons are not excluded with prior notification and the provision of the necessary time for the evacuation of laboratory personnel. The scheme with the threat of using high-precision weapons can be tested in Moldova after establishing control over the Odessa region, and then in Georgia.
Thus, the situation in Ukraine is the most important in terms of the formation of a safe space by Russia on its borders, but this is only the first stage of this process. The harsh truth of life is that 5-10 years of feat of arms and hard work await our country.
Russian political and economic analytics. I publish materials that, in my opinion, will be useful to the English-speaking public.
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