Objective
The aim of the work is to analyze the current trend of the frequency of occurrence of dangerous hydrological phenomena in the mountain regions of Europe and Australia to identify the causes of possible errors in forecasting. To give recommendations on optimization of forecasts and study ways to reduce the capacity of dangerous hydrological phenomena.
Types of floods in mountainous areas:
- Flash floods
- River floods
- Ice jam flooding
- Urban floods
- Engineering issues
Tasks and methods:
- Differences and common features in the processes of formation of floods in the mountain regions of Europe and Australia were identified with using comparative method, statistical method, historical method, literary method, cartographic method, aerial photography, space method (analysis of satellite images), analysis and synthesis method.
- The causes of inaccuracies in forecasting hazardous water events in mountain areas were analyzed and provide recommendations for correcting forecasting techniques by using historical method, literary method (literary and Internet sources), expert evaluation method, prediction methods, analysis and synthesis method.
- A system of possible measures was developed to prevent dangerous natural phenomena and to correct the microclimate of small areas by using cartographic method, expert evaluation method, prediction methods, and analysis and synthesis method
The main differences between the Alpine mountain system and the Great Dividing Range in Australia are in climate and altitude above sea level.
In the Alps, the main difficulties in calculating the probability of floods are the lack of meteorological data at high altitudes, problems in accurately estimating orographic precipitation, and a complex combination of the interaction of the solid and liquid phases of water.
In Australia, where the mountain system lower and snow cover does not play such a significant role, the main problem is the considerable inaccuracy in weather forecasts in the tropical monsoon climate in comparison with the forecasts in the temperate climate.
In connection with the increased instability of the atmosphere in the tropical latitudes during the monsoon period, the accuracy of weather forecasts falls sharply.
Climate change impacts on mountain floods
Despite significant uncertainties in projections for future climate change, for the regions studied, most scenarios provide for a small average annual reduction in precipitation, but a more uneven distribution over the seasons.
An increase in the contrast of climatic conditions for both regions is forecasted.
This means that atmospheric precipitation will fall less often, but with greater intensity, which will increase the risk of dangerous hydrological phenomena.
Methods for preventing dangerous hydrological phenomena and correction the microclimate of some territories:
Better weather modeling and improved forecasting systems: Real-time radar observation of rainfall and satellite monitoring of inundation.
Developing of new techniques and computer models using artificial intelligence and constant high-precision satellite monitoring in various ranges.
Creating new hydraulic structures - dams, water protection shafts, flood water reservoirs, etc.
Increasing the capacity of the watercourses by expanding, deepening, straightening the flow at key points, and constructing additional irrigation channels.
In some cases, it is possible to reduce the amount and intensity of local precipitation by correcting the landscape, relief, and temporary changes in the physical parameters of the lower layers of the atmosphere.
So, in order to change the spatial distribution of the amount of precipitation, it is necessary to understand the basic mechanisms of cumulonimbus clouds.
In a territory with a complex relief and a diverse underlying surface, rain clouds will develop faster over the rising airstreams and in the presence of a large number of condensation nuclei in the atmosphere.
Basic steps of artificial microclimate changing:
- To choose an area where heavy precipitation is undesirable, but they do happen
- Determine the season and time of day of the most frequent intensive precipitation
- To detect the presence and origin of sources of increased content of condensation nuclei in air (aerosols) and to calculate the possibility of their removal or neutralization
- Identify objects that can stimulate the convection of clouds at a given time of day in the studied area and in neighboring areas from the direction of air masses
- Change the properties of the underlying surface so as to reduce the ascending warm air flows at a certain time of day (year)
- Correct if it is possible to shape the relief so as to reduce the mechanical stimulation of the ascending air currents and turbulence
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