The summer is gone, the fireworks are over (at least on the rivers: the Roman ones continue...) and for the world of the car the little exciting prevacancial scenario is proposed again, perhaps even a little worsened.
Trade statistics are what they are: in Italy, the registrations from January to August were 1,325,162, or 3.02% less than the same period in 2018. And if the cars registered by the rental companies are separated, the drop is even greater: it reaches 4.3%. And the trend is not only Italian. In the 28 EU countries, the 10,520,238 cars registered in the first 8 months of the year mean a decrease of 3.2%. It is not even a passing contingency: of the twelve months from September 2018 to August 2019, in the EU markets, the "red" months were ten.
And those who make forecasts go beyond these figures. The economic analysis agency Standard & Poor's has published a study in which it forecasts a drop in world car sales of between 2 and 3% by 2019. The strongest decline is expected in China (between 7 and 9% less), while in the U.S. and Europe the contraction is expected to be around 2%. The same study forecasts a similar trend for 2020, with the prospect of a recovery only for 2021.
So it seems certain that there is something deep at stake, which probably goes beyond the area of four wheels. Environmental issues have imposed a different approach to the car and the prospects are very different scenarios compared not only to the past but also to the present.
"The future is the electric car" is the concept that has passed, and you might think that everyone steps to be able to travel with zero emissions. The reality of the numbers, however, is very different. Electric cars are still Cinderellas not only on the roads but also in delivery statistics and order reports.
In Italy in the 8 months from January to August sales of electric cars have grown by 108.7%, but the amount is still modest: 6,451 units, out of a total of over 1.3 million ... The situation is a little different even in Europe. From January to June (latest ACEA data available) sales of "alternative" cars to petrol and diesel were 724,599, an increase of 27.5%. Of these, 125,344 were electric cars, an increase of 90.9% in 2018. Also to consider the cars with the plugin solution you get to 197,813, with a growth of 37.8%. This is while the registrations of petrol cars were 4,818,367 (+1.7%); those of diesel cars 2,574,756, down 17.2%. Figures that speak for themselves.
In the meantime, daily news about news and initiatives concerning electric mobility are arriving. For example, Nissan has reached an agreement with the French EDF (the national company from across the Alps that produces and distributes electricity) to install a network of modern charging points type V2G (and the initiative will also cover Italy). A program also related to V2G technology has been announced by FCA and Terna for the launch of an experimental network of 700 charging stations through which, among other things, the electricity distribution network can also "suck" the charge of cars to feed it into its network... In this regard, perhaps the most relevant announcement is that concerning the Daimler group that has signed an agreement with the Chinese CATL for the supply of batteries for Mercedes trucks.
All this is accompanied by no less numerous industry initiatives, such as the agreement between France and Germany for the start of production of batteries for the automotive industry and the new models with electric traction referred to in the chronicles, such as the new Renault Zoe, announced with a range of 390 km, albeit with specific "measured according to the WLTP mode"). But not only that, there is no lack of commercial initiatives aimed at winning adherents to the electric car. For example, Volkswagen that cuts drastically, which is about 7 thousand euros less, the price of Volkswagen eGolf, not to make it disappear in the face of the new ID.3 coming in mid-2020.
So there is no doubt: the prospect is that.
What is not clear, however, is how to deal with the transition phase from "all oil" to electricity. The automotive industry is impressive and it is not easy to imagine how it can handle this transformation if the rate of absorption of the new electricity is that of today, as shown by the statistics. Even a three-digit percentage increases will take a long time. Quite a long time. It is already established that the industry of vehicles for electric mobility will require many fewer employees than those of the "thermal" car, but what seems worrying is precisely how the transition can materialize, if the industry, on the one hand, sees its turnover fall due to the fall in sales of diesel vehicles and partly also gasoline, and on the other has to deal with a market reluctant to materialize the beautiful in the market.