Usually luck in business isn't much to say. It's like this, but it's not important.
A trite phrase that sounds like "Success (genius) is 1% of luck (talent) and 99% of the work" attributed to many people from Goethe to Edison.
The main hard work, and the rest ... so trifling 1%.
So here we go. The longer I do business, the longer I look at the successes and failures of others. The more I come to the conclusion that:
Successful business = Good luck + everything else.
That is. Success in business mainly depends on luck, blindness, whatever you name. From a unique set of circumstances: time, people, resources, etc. It is impossible to repeat them. Something will be different.
Of course, even a very successful business can be ruined: wrong management, stuff, and so on. But here to force taking off unsuccessful, it is impossible in any way. It is possible to prolong the agony, to reduce losses, but to take off... well, there is no way.
There is such a good expression, "Nobody has become rich reading books how to get rich. There are a huge number of courses "How to become successful and rich," but the only one who can become rich and successful is the sellers of these courses. Do you not believe it? Name one person who has become rich and successful.
Of course, resources, knowledge, experience, etc. Contribute to success, it is silly to argue. You can give a thousand, really right advice about what not to do. Alas, losers do not write books, although they are a hundred times more useful than any book of a billionaire on how to do it.
But is it possible to give advice on what to do? So to speak, to remove the factor of luck.
No, you can't. No one in the world can predict what will or will not go. No matter how much money is invested: in market research, in advertising, in development. How much experience and successful projects were before. There is always the risk of losing everything.
Take, for example, the ZUNE player from Microsoft. There is a lot of money and energy invested in it, and the result is... All losses and everything is closed. Apple ? They too have enough unsuccessful products and the firm in due time with difficulty has survived. In the end, Nokia has simply gone bankrupt. And such ... the name of the legion.
Computer games.
Every day, come out dozens of different: and repeated, and innovative. And kopecks and with budgets of millions of dollars.
Simple min craft, which can be created by almost any programmer, shoots so that eventually it is sold for billions of dollars. Launching birds in pigs from slingshot has brought the creators hundreds of millions of euros. And how many similar projects have died without causing anything but losses. How many successful studios have closed down before?
No one could predict the result in advance.
God bless him with IT.
Movies.
Like experience, knowledge, and everything else at Disney studio, well, very much. BUT:
"The Thirteenth Warrior, 1999
"The Mystery of the Red Planet, 2011
"John Carter, 2012.
"Lone Ranger, 2013.
"Land of the Future, 2015
For each of them, the loss exceeds 100 million dollars, about less unprofitable even silently. How many studios were closed as a result of a chain of unsuccessful films? Hundreds.
Chain shops.
Retail chains, "magnet", "five", "Dixie" were able to find a way, and how many could not survive? Where is a penny, where are the others? (The last case, our supermarket chain was absorbed by Ribbon) They were slightly different, somewhere a little bit worse somewhere better. But the difference was insignificant. As a result, they went down and were sold. (Successful business is not sold, or sold very expensively.)
You can continue for a long time. Everyone will be able to find a huge number of examples on their own, both among small and giants.
95% of businesses are closed within 2 years, not because their creators are newcomers, but because it did not go. If their creators were "burned professionals", 75% would be closed. That's the price of all experience and knowledge.
And actually, the conclusions from everything written above.
Business is a pure lottery. BUT. To win in it, you should at least buy a ticket.
There is no need to be afraid to start a business due to a lack of experience, fears, and concerns. Luck in this business is the main thing. It will be successful - earned money, enough to cover the mistakes of a beginner. Unsuccessful - yes, at least 30 years in business, but the agony will delay.
Do not listen to the advice. Losers couldn't do it anyway, they couldn't repeat the path of successful ones. And the sense in the advice?
And lastly. Good luck in your undertakings!