Although the company will not reveal the outside world are most concerned about the iPhone sales, but analysis of the forecast since the first half of this year iPhone sales weak, coupled with Apple's new models change little, and the second half of the year Apple launched the new iPhone sales could face serious challenges.
The new iPhone is expected “amount of the retraction price reduction”
Currently Apple parts suppliers are for the second half of the new models to intensify their stocking, but compared to the second half of last year 8000 million iPhone shipments, analysts expect the second half of this year Apple's new iPhone shipments may not exceed last year, and it will shrink the amount of price reduction. Apple's second-quarter iPhone shipments forecast for 3700 million units, a year-on-year decline of 10%.
Apple is expected to be of this year the new conference on the release of the next generation iPhone. According to investment bank, Barclays expects that Apple will release three new iPhone models, but is expected in the design will not have a significant change.
Barclays also expects Apple's next-generation iPhone will be in this year 7 months to 8 months to start production, but production year-over-year will be down 10%to 6500 million. This is mainly users of the iPhone replacement cycle becomes long due.
Also, compared to the previous quarter 580 million dollars of revenue, Apple's upcoming announcement of third-quarter earnings in May will display the revenue to further decline to 525 billion to 545 million USD range.
Earlier this month, The Wall Street brokerage Rosenblatt Securities will Apple's stock rating from “neutral” down to “sell”, raises Apple's stock price shock.
Rosenblatt Securities downgraded Apple's stock rating citing concerns about the iPhone the new machine sales slump, and think that the iPhone in the next six months to a year will face a “fundamental deterioration” in.
iPhone shipments expected pessimism also spread to Apple's suppliers, battery manufacturer Murata production Murata Manufacturing, the optical storage business Taiyo Yuden, as well as Hon Hai and speaker suppliers AACTech shares are subject to different degrees of impact.
Leveraging the power of 5G to reverse the decline
But investment bank JP Morgan expects iPhone this year, shipments will reach 1.8 billion, and by 5G phones boost, by 2020, the iPhone shipments are expected to reverse the decline, grow to 1.95 million.
But Apple 5G phone will not be earlier than the 2020 release. JPMorgan's report, wrote that expect by 2020 on the release of the third iPhone will all be using OLED display and 5G baseband chip, and at least two paragraphs, using the global 3D face sensing technology that supports AR and VR capability.
To ensure that in the 5G mobile phone competition in do not lag behind the competition, Apple is redoubling its bet on the 5G market inputs.
The company recently announced the investment of $ 10 billion acquisition of Intel most of the 5G baseband chip business. If all goes well, the acquisition will in this year's fourth quarter to complete.
Earlier this year, after experiencing a long-lasting patent disputes after Apple officially with a high-pass announced “reconciliation”, then Intel announced plans to exit the 5G smartphone modem business. Get the Intel 5G baseband chip capacity after apples plan to develop their 5G chip, to further get rid of the high-pass dependence.
2016 Apple iPhone 7 series phones began to use dual supply purchase strategy, that the new machine is part of the continued use of Qualcomm's baseband, and the other part using the Intel baseband. However, Apple from the official use of self-developed chips still needs to wait for several years.
Research firm Gartner analyst to CBN reporter said that Apple is about to release the first batch of 5G mobile phones will still use Qualcomm's 5G chip.
In Apple's upcoming earnings report, investors will pay close attention to Apple's acquisition of the Intel chip business after the strategic layout. Especially in the iPhone sales growth in the doldrums of the situation, Apple how to open the 5G smartphone market the new pattern.
On the other hand, the U.S. technology giant is facing increasingly strict antitrust review. The U.S. Department of Justice has officially announced the large technology platform enterprise investigation to ensure that its revenue is built on is not in violation of the antitrust laws based on it, it will also give Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook and other large American technology companies applied cost pressure.
Attention services income
Also, Apple's policy by “hard” over “soft” in the process, the Apple service business revenues and China's market performance will be more affected by attention.
Wall Street Investment Bank EvercoreISI earlier this month released a report is expected in the third quarter, the Apple Store developer revenue will grow 18% to 90 billion USD. While the Apple Store's revenue last year reached 371 billion dollars. Apple even launched a credit card, a TV streaming media such as the financial and entertainment products will be their re-defined as a diversified service provider.
The Chinese market is not only Apple's most important market but also is the Apple device the most important production markets. Last quarter, Apple up to 18%of the revenue from the Greater China area.
Evercore analyst said that in China the growth of the market began to re-accelerate, the developer of the scale is especially large. Apple's services business and the China market performance will be the Apple policy by the hardware turned software the process, to play a more important role.