The biggest risk factors facing the global economy in 2019, according to Economy News, is the instability that has the potential to affect markets worldwide.
The economy was facing the fear of analysts of an upcoming global financial collapse in the not-too-distant future; investors are involved in geopolitical tensions and trade wars between the two most powerful countries. In a statement to Yrjö Koskinen Express.co.uk, it is stated that if the US loses the trust of President Donald Trump and the tensions in China's trade trade have started to increase, it may cause global chaos. From the perspective of the region, France's yellow vest protests and an unintelligible Brexit with long-term growth problems in Italy were listed as potential controversies for the European economy. According to Koskinen, leaving the European Union unintended would be an ”economic disaster" and it would negatively affect the rest of the bloc.
Brexit's uncertainty has already proven to be harmful to the pound because it has lost around 13 per cent of the referendum.
In France, protesting the planned hikes in diesel taxes led to political instability, with President Emmanuel Macron facing the biggest challenge to the presidency.
Mr. Macron was forced to take back fuel tax increases after fierce protests hit French cities.
At the same time, Italy has locked itself in a fierce war against EU finance chiefs over controversial budget plans.
The cabinet initially had targeted the budget with a budget target three times larger than the previous government promised, targeting a deficit equivalent to 2.4 percent of the gross domestic product.
While the political turmoil imposed the euro on major currencies, such as country wars, the Italian government reduced its economic growth forecast for 2019 from 1.5 percent to 1.0 percent.
Mr. Koskinen, Associate Professor and Professor of Finance at the Haskayne School of Business at the University of Calgary said: yabancı Problems in Europe, for example, can lead to a regional financial crisis if foreign investors continue to sell Italian government bonds. The spread across Germany continues to expand.
”But I don't believe that European issues will lead to a global crisis.“
US-China trade war reduces economic growth
However, according to Koskinen, there are problems in the US that can cause a wide global impact.
According to Reuters' economists survey, US stagnation risk rose to 40 percent over the next two years
Reuters tied its concerns to the flattening of the US yield curve - the difference between two to 10-year grade yields fell below 10 basis points.
This is the smallest gap in the US until the last recession.
Reuters, a flattening yield curve, shows investors believe that economic growth and inflation will slow down.
Mr. Koskinen warned that if the president loses confidence in the electorate, the collapse of the Trump administration could cause too much sales in the US.
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This could lead to an increase in the ongoing trade war with China in order to cover up political instability.
Politik Political instability in the United States can cause a global economic crisis, Kos Koskinen said.
If the Trump administration collapses in 2019 and markets lose all confidence in the capacity of management to manage, we can see that stocks in the US are sold too much.
Things can get worse if the helpless Trump administration launches a trade war with China as an inconvenience to its internal problems. “
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made several downsides this year, detailing concerns about how the economy is not prepared for the collapse.
In October, the IMF warned of Büyük major challenges önle before ”to prevent a second Great Depression Ekim; The international organization claimed that the world's markets were under the risk of another collapse 10 years after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank.
This month, the first deputy general manager of the IMF, David Lipton, warned that "the construction of storm clouds", which speaks of the fear of "crisis prevention is missing".