👉 Last week, Chairperson of the Central Bank E. Nabiullina told about the current state of the Russian economy.
"The economy is growing, but it is growing slowly. According to our estimates, now it is growing at a rate close to the potential, the ones that are possible with this structure and the given productivity of the economy, "E. Nabiullina said, adding" We expect, that in 2017 the annual growth rate of GDP will be 1.8 %. On the one hand, this is undoubtedly a positive fact - the economy recovered faster than many expected, than we expected. On the other hand, this means that the period of recovery growth is almost complete. We estimate, that we compensated for the 95% drop in the economy, that has occurred since 2015. If this figure, seasonally smoothed, then 99%. As a matter of fact, by the end of the year, we have already reduced all the recession, that has occurred, we will already restore it ".
👉 The essence of the speech of the head of the Central Bank can be reduced to the following - the economic recovery in the country will be completed by the end of the year, with the current structure and productivity, the Russian economy simply does not have the opportunities for further development.
👉 Where did the economic growth come from and why do the Federal Ministers M. Oreshkin and A. Siluanov tolt to the people about non-existent achievements about GDP growth of 2.2%? They just compare the indicators of the current year with the indicators of the previous year. If in the previous year the results were very bad, then even a bad result this year will be perceived as growth. This phenomenon is called - low base effect.
👉 In fact, the head of the Central Bank confirmed the opinion of the expert community that the current economic growth (growth of industrial production, GDP and a number of other indicators of the real sector of the economy) was caused not by the achievements and diligent work of the Federal Government, but by the low base of the previous year.
👉 Also at the right time for the Cabinet of Ministers, the price of hydrocarbons began to rise, the cost of which increased by a quarter - in January for a barrel of Brent oil was given about $ 50. If we take into account the increase in prices for the main Russian product, then the economic rebound by just a few points can be considered a catastrophic failure of the proxies of the Prime Minister and the Central Bank.
👉 In February, the low base effect will end, on the contrary, the base of 2017 will be high, so it will be impossible to compare the year 2018 with the same period of the previous year. In turn, oil prices will cease to grow or even decrease - the increasing volumes of hydrocarbon production in the United States will have an impact. The Ministers of the economic block of the Government will have several ways from which they will have to choose only one.
👉 Way number 1 - Recognize the fact, that the crisis, that has lasted for the last four years, has not ended, and figures with forecasts of GDP growth, welfare of citizens, growth of industrial production were false information brought to the first person and the people. Of course, knowing "our" Ministers, it's hard to believe in such things.
👉 Way number 2 - Affect Rosstat by changing the methodology for calculating individual key indicators and / or slowing down the publication of reports until the final count of votes in the Presidential elections and deciding who will get into the updated Cabinet.
👉 Way number 3 - blame the geopolitical opponent - the United States. The benefit of the lack of anti-American sentiments is not felt by our leaders. In February 2018, the US Ministry of Finance should publish a report on the assets of our elite - the "offshore aristocracy" outside the Russian Federation. The next logical step is to block the bills of officials, who steal money, or rather those of its representatives, that will not go on a deal with the US authorities. I think, it is on this path that the Russian elites will go - they'll write everything down to America.
👉 The population will be presented in such a way that the US, the EU and other Western countries are to blame for everything. Naturally, the state media and domestic state activities will keep silent that the main and main problem of Russia are internal problems related to corruption, selfish interests of Russian elites and total inefficiency of management.
👉 So, in 2018 we will meet a new crisis that will hit the poorest, most unprotected strata of our native country. And there is absolutely no hope for the Government, new or new-old hope. Therefore, buy my dear citizens the currency, strengthen your position at work, if it is and read the normal news...
P.S.
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