Match Prediction and Analysis on November 7, 2023 A month ago, the Rossoneri were in great shape, with a five-game winning streak in the Italian championship that took Stefano Pioli’s side to the top of the table. However, their leadership was short-lived as they lost to Juventus (0-1) in the very next round, slipping back to second place. One of the excuses for the San Siro hosts could be that they spent most of the game with ten men, as Malik Tshau received a straight red card in the 41st minute. However, the 0.31 xG (expected goals) from Rafa Leao and his teammates looks like a clear failure even in such circumstances.
Three days after their disappointment against Juventus, Milan suffered an even more significant setback when they faced PSG at the Parc des Princes (0-3), extending their unfortunate streak of games without scoring in the Champions League to five. In their group, Milan currently sits at the bottom with two points after failing to win any matches.
A visit to Napoli temporarily diverted attention from their crisis, as the Rossoneri took a 2-0 lead within 31 minutes thanks to a brace by Olivier Giroud. However, they allowed the Azzurri to mount a comeback in the second half, with Matteo Politano scoring in the 50th minute and Giacomo Raspadori in the 63rd minute.
The match against Udinese revealed that Milan’s problems are more severe than initially thought. Before hosting Udinese, the black and reds had not won a single game and were languishing in the relegation zone. Udinese earned their first three points of the season with Roberto Pereyra’s precise penalty in the 62nd minute. Milan displayed complete offensive impotence, managing only four shots out of 14, with an xG of 0.87—meaning Milan did not even deserve to score a goal. This was against a team that had secured seven draws and suffered three defeats in their previous ten games, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match. Milan has now fallen to third place in the table, trailing leaders Inter by six points.
PSG, after the victory over Milan, won a high-scoring battle against Brest (3-2), where Kylian Mbappe’s brace proved crucial. In their match against Montpellier, Mbappe remained silent, but Paris Saint-Germain managed to win without him, thanks to accurate strikes from Li Kang-in, Warren Zaire-Emery, and Vinicius. This marked PSG’s third clean sheet in five consecutive matches across all competitions.
Prediction and bet on the Milan vs. PSG match After a wake-up call from Newcastle, Luis Enrique’s side has gone on a serious run, winning five games in a row with a total score of 15-3. Parisians have only conceded goals in two games and scored three goals in each. Milan has failed to win any of their last four matches, and a failure against the French club will make their quest for a place in the knockout stage even more challenging. Stefano Pioli will likely adopt a cautious approach and focus on containing Kylian Mbappe and his teammates. However, it may prove difficult for Milan.
Recommended bet: Kylian Mbappe – total shots on target over 1.5.