The development of technology has significantly changed the lives of modern people, dramatically expanding their opportunities. But technology poses a hidden threat - it has led to a dramatic increase in the use of natural resources, which is not unlimited at all. For example, many technologies depend on oil, and there are not many oil reserves in the world. What will happen to civilization when oil runs out? Let's try to answer this question.
Why do we need oil?
Today, oil is a very popular resource. And first of all, it is a very convenient raw material for fuel production. Fuel from oil burns perfectly is easily filled, stored and transported. In this connection, the overwhelming majority of engines in the world now run on oil fuel.
Different fractions of oil are used to produce different types of fuel - kerosene, gasoline, diesel fuel. Such fuel is used by ships, airplanes and rockets, trains, and almost all land transport. Besides, various agricultural, construction and other equipment need fuel, small power generators are working on it, even a chainsaw and a lawnmower cannot be used without gasoline.
But oil is not just fuel. Oil is a valuable raw material for the chemical industry. For example, plastics are made of it, without which it is difficult to imagine modern production. Besides, oil is used to make synthetic fabrics (which are mostly used to make modern clothes), rubber, varnishes and paints, household chemicals, fertilizers, and even medicines. More than 6 thousand items of goods are produced from oil! So it is not difficult to imagine the scale of the catastrophe that will happen when the world runs out of oil.
How many more years will oil last?
Oil runs out pretty fast. Simple calculations show that proven reserves all over the world will last for about 50 years at current rates of production. So at least people born at the end of the 20th - beginning of the 21st century have a good chance of surviving to the next oil collapse.
Of course, oil won't run out at once, and that's it. Some of the oil fields are not being developed today, because it is economically unprofitable. But over time, when relatively affordable oil runs out, its prices will rise and oil will be produced from hard-to-reach fields. However, this will only stretch the impending collapse.
Also, the peculiarities of the capitalist economy are such that resource prices are subject to sharp fluctuations. For example, if there are clear signs of an oil shortage, a panic can begin and the price of oil will rise sharply in one moment. In a light form, the world has already experienced something similar. For example, in 1973, oil prices rose sharply - by a factor of about 4 -. As a result, gasoline disappeared from gasoline refueling in the USA and Western Europe, the number of flights was reduced, and power cuts began. Industrial production fell by 13% and shares of American companies by 30%. And in early 2019, the gasoline crisis broke out in Mexico. This country was once one of the largest oil exporters, but today it is not even enough for domestic consumption. As a result, fuel prices began to rise, and then there was a fuel shortage. Queues at gas stations stretched for kilometers, and the authorities called on citizens to walk.
What will happen when the oil runs out?
The world will undoubtedly face a global economic and technological crisis. Even before the final depletion of reserves, there will be a sharp rise in prices of oil and petroleum products, which will lead to a significant increase in production costs, and possibly a shortage of many goods. In this situation, much will depend on the measures that governments will take. In the worst case, if they are unable to keep the situation under control, mass layoffs, riots, robberies, and the collapse of civilized society are possible. Besides, attempts to control the depleting oil reserves will surely lead to resource wars. The U.S. is already waging wars for oil, but in the future, they will become even more intense.
But if we prepare for the crisis purposefully, gradually reduce the consumption of oil and seek its replacement, the crisis can be overcome. For example, transport may well use a variety of alternative fuels, and the chemical industry may as well be converted to other raw materials. Synthetic analogs of oil can be obtained from coal, forestry waste, and other plant materials. The main thing is to prepare for the crisis in advance, not thoughtlessly waste oil reserves, as Russia does today.
When will oil run out in Russia?
Russia is one of the leading oil exporters in the world, although we are not the first in terms of its reserves. Many Gulf countries or Venezuela have much more oil reserves. Russia annually sells more than 500 million tons of oil, while the explored reserves are only 13 billion tons. This means that oil in Russia will last until about 2044.